Saturday, 29 August 2020

TikTok’s rivals in India struggle to cash in on its ban

For years, India has served as the largest open battleground for Silicon Valley and Chinese firms searching for their next billion users.

With more than 400 million WhatsApp users, India is already the largest market for the Facebook-owned service. The social juggernaut’s big blue app also reaches more than 300 million users in the country.

Google is estimated to reach just as many users in India, with YouTube closely rivaling WhatsApp for the most popular smartphone app in the country.

Several major giants from China, like Alibaba and Tencent (which a decade ago shut doors for most foreign firms), also count India as their largest overseas market. At its peak, Alibaba’s UC Web gave Google’s Chrome a run for its money. And then there is TikTok, which also identified India as its biggest market outside of China.

Though the aggressive arrival of foreign firms in India helped accelerate the growth of the local ecosystem, their capital and expertise also created a level of competition that made it too challenging for most Indian firms to claim a slice of their home market.

New Delhi’s ban on 59 Chinese apps on June 30 on the basis of cybersecurity concerns has changed a lot of this.

Indian apps that rarely made an appearance in the top 20 have now flooded the charts. But are these skyrocketing download figures translating to sustaining users?

An industry executive leaked the download, monthly active users, weekly active users and daily active users figures from one of the top mobile insight firms. In this Extra Crunch report, we take a look at the changes New Delhi’s ban has enacted on the world’s second largest smartphone market.

TikTok copycats

Scores of startups in India, including news aggregator DailyHunt, on-demand video streamer MX Player and advertising giant InMobi Group, have launched their short-video format apps in recent months.



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Steno raises $3.5 million led by First Round to become an extension of law offices

The global legal services industry was worth $849 billion dollars in 2017 and is expected to become a trillion dollar industry by the end of next year. Little wonder that Steno, an L.A.-based startup, wants a piece.

Like most legal services outfits, what it offers are ways for law practices to run more smoothly, including in a world where fewer people are meeting in conference rooms and courthouses and operating instead from disparate locations.

Steno first launched with an offering that centers on court reporting. It lines up court reporters, as well as pays them, removing both potential headaches from lawyers’ to-do lists.

More recently, the startup has added offerings like a remote deposition videoconferencing platform that it insists is not only secure but can manage exhibit handling and other details in ways meant to meet specific legal needs.

It also, very notably, has a lending product that enables lawyers to take depositions without paying until a case is resolved, which can take a year or two. The idea is to free attorneys’ financial resources — including so they can take on other clients — until there’s a payout. Of course, the product is also a potentially lucrative one for Steno, as are most lending products.

We talked earlier this week with the company, which just closed on a $3.5 million seed round led by First Round Capital (it has now raised $5 million altogether).

Unsurprisingly, one of its founders is a lawyer named Dylan Ruga who works as a trial attorney at an L.A.-based law group and knows first-hand the biggest pain points for his peers.

More surprising is his cofounder, Gregory Hong, who previously cofounded the restaurant reservation platform Reserve, which was acquired by Resy, which was acquired by American Express. How did Hong make the leap from one industry to a seemingly very different one?

Hong says he might not have gravitated to the idea if not for Ruga, who was Resy’s trademark attorney and who happened to send Hong the pitch behind Steno to get Hong’s advice. He looked it over as a favor, then he asked to get involved. “I just thought, ‘This is a unique and interesting opportunity’ and said, ‘Dylan, let me run this.'”

Today the 19-month-old startup now has 20 full-time employees and another 10 part-time staffers. One major accelerant to the business has been the pandemic, suggests Hong. Turns out tech-enabled legal support services become even more attractive when lawyers and everyone else in the ecosystem is socially distancing.

Hong suggests that Steno’s idea to marry its services with financing is gaining adherents, too, including amid law groups like JML Law and Simon Law Groups, both of which focus largely on personal injury cases.

Indeed, Steno charges — and provides financing — on a per-transaction basis right now, even while its revenue is “somewhat recurring” in that its customers constantly have court cases.

Still, a subscription product is being considered, says Hong. So are other uses for its videoconferencing platform. In the meantime, says Hong, Steno’s tech is “built very well” for legal services, and that’s where it plans to remain focused.



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Banks aren’t as stupid as enterprise AI and fintech entrepreneurs think

Announcements like Selina Finance’s $53 million raise and another $64.7 million raise the next day for a different banking startup spark enterprise artificial intelligence and fintech evangelists to rejoin the debate over how banks are stupid and need help or competition.

The complaint is banks are seemingly too slow to adopt fintech’s bright ideas. They don’t seem to grasp where the industry is headed. Some technologists, tired of marketing their wares to banks, have instead decided to go ahead and launch their own challenger banks.

But old-school financiers aren’t dumb. Most know the “buy versus build” choice in fintech is a false choice. The right question is almost never whether to buy software or build it internally. Instead, banks have often worked to walk the difficult but smarter path right down the middle — and that’s accelerating.

Two reasons why banks are smarter

That’s not to say banks haven’t made horrendous mistakes. Critics complain about banks spending billions trying to be software companies, creating huge IT businesses with huge redundancies in cost and longevity challenges, and investing into ineffectual innovation and “intrapreneurial” endeavors. But overall, banks know their business way better than the entrepreneurial markets that seek to influence them.

First, banks have something most technologists don’t have enough of: Banks have domain expertise. Technologists tend to discount the exchange value of domain knowledge. And that’s a mistake. So much abstract technology, without critical discussion, deep product management alignment and crisp, clear and business-usefulness, makes too much technology abstract from the material value it seeks to create.

Second, banks are not reluctant to buy because they don’t value enterprise artificial intelligence and other fintech. They’re reluctant because they value it too much. They know enterprise AI gives a competitive edge, so why should they get it from the same platform everyone else is attached to, drawing from the same data lake?

Competitiveness, differentiation, alpha, risk transparency and operational productivity will be defined by how highly productive, high-performance cognitive tools are deployed at scale in the incredibly near future. The combination of NLP, ML, AI and cloud will accelerate competitive ideation in order of magnitude. The question is, how do you own the key elements of competitiveness? It’s a tough question for many enterprises to answer.

If they get it right, banks can obtain the true value of their domain expertise and develop a differentiated edge where they don’t just float along with every other bank on someone’s platform. They can define the future of their industry and keep the value. AI is a force multiplier for business knowledge and creativity. If you don’t know your business well, you’re wasting your money. Same goes for the entrepreneur. If you can’t make your portfolio absolutely business relevant, you end up being a consulting business pretending to be a product innovator.

Who’s afraid of who?

So are banks at best cautious, and at worst afraid? They don’t want to invest in the next big thing only to have it flop. They can’t distinguish what’s real from hype in the fintech space. And that’s understandable. After all, they have spent a fortune on AI. Or have they?

It seems they have spent a fortune on stuff called AI — internal projects with not a snowball’s chance in hell to scale to the volume and concurrency demands of the firm. Or they have become enmeshed in huge consulting projects staggering toward some lofty objective that everyone knows deep down is not possible.

This perceived trepidation may or may not be good for banking, but it certainly has helped foster the new industry of the challenger bank.

Challenger banks are widely accepted to have come around because traditional banks are too stuck in the past to adopt their new ideas. Investors too easily agree. In recent weeks, American challenger banks Chime unveiled a credit card, U.S.-based Point launched and German challenger bank Vivid launched with the help of Solarisbank, a fintech company.

What’s going on behind the curtain

Traditional banks are spending resources on hiring data scientists too — sometimes in numbers that dwarf the challenger bankers. Legacy bankers want to listen to their data scientists on questions and challenges rather than pay more for an external fintech vendor to answer or solve them.

This arguably is the smart play. Traditional bankers are asking themselves why should they pay for fintech services that they can’t 100% own, or how can they buy the right bits, and retain the parts that amount to a competitive edge? They don’t want that competitive edge floating around in a data lake somewhere.

From banks’ perspective, it’s better to “fintech” internally or else there’s no competitive advantage; the business case is always compelling. The problem is a bank is not designed to stimulate creativity in design. JPMC’s COIN project is a rare and fantastically successful project. Though, this is an example of a super alignment between creative fintech and the bank being able to articulate a clear, crisp business problem — a Product Requirements Document for want of a better term. Most internal development is playing games with open source, with the shine of the alchemy wearing off as budgets are looked at hard in respect to return on investment.

A lot of people are going to talk about setting new standards in the coming years as banks onboard these services and buy new companies. Ultimately, fintech firms and banks are going to join together and make the new standard as new options in banking proliferate.

Don’t incur too much technical debt

So, there’s a danger to spending too much time learning how to do it yourself and missing the boat as everyone else moves ahead.

Engineers will tell you that untutored management can fail to steer a consistent course. The result is an accumulation of technical debt as development-level requirements keep zigzagging. Laying too much pressure on your data scientists and engineers can also lead to technical debt piling up faster. A bug or an inefficiency is left in place. New features are built as workarounds.

This is one reason why in-house-built software has a reputation for not scaling. The same problem shows up in consultant-developed software. Old problems in the system hide underneath new ones and the cracks begin to show in the new applications built on top of low-quality code.

So how to fix this? What’s the right model?

It’s a bit of a dull answer, but success comes from humility. It needs an understanding that big problems are solved with creative teams, each understanding what they bring, each being respected as equals and managed in a completely clear articulation on what needs to be solved and what success looks like.

Throw in some Stalinist project management and your probability of success goes up an order of magnitude. So, the successes of the future will see banks having fewer but way more trusted fintech partners that jointly value the intellectual property they are creating. They’ll have to respect that neither can succeed without the other. It’s a tough code to crack. But without it, banks are in trouble, and so are the entrepreneurs that seek to work with them.



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What does GPT-3 mean for the future of the legal profession?

One doesn’t have to dig too deep into legal organizations to find people who are skeptical about artificial intelligence.

AI is getting tremendous attention and significant venture capital, but AI tools frequently underwhelm in the trenches. Here are a few reasons why that is and why I believe GPT-3, a beta version of which was recently released by the OpenAI Foundation, might be a game changer in legal and other knowledge-focused organizations.

GPT-3 is getting a lot of oxygen lately because of its size, scope and capabilities. However, it should be recognized that a significant amount of that attention is due to its association with Elon Musk. The OpenAI Foundation that created GPT-3 was founded by heavy hitters Musk and Sam Altman and is supported by Mark Benioff, Peter Thiel and Microsoft, among others. Arthur C. Clarke once observed that great innovations happen after everyone stops laughing.

Musk has made the world stop laughing in so many ambitious areas that the world is inclined to give a project in which he’s had a hand a second look. GPT-3 is getting the benefit of that spotlight. I suggest, however, that the attention might be warranted on its merits.

Why have some AI-based tools struggled in the legal profession, and how might GPT-3 be different?

1. Not every problem is a nail

It is said that when you’re a hammer, every problem is a nail. The networks and algorithms that power AI are quite good at drawing correlations across enormous datasets that would not be obvious to humans. One of my favorite examples of this is a loan-underwriting AI that determined that the charge level of the battery on your phone at the time of application is correlated to your underwriting risk. Who knows why that is? A human would not have surmised that connection. Those things are not rationally related, just statistically related.



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Friday, 28 August 2020

SaaS stocks survive earnings, keeping the market warm for software startups, exits

We’re on the other end of nearly every single SaaS earnings report that you can name, with the exception of Slack, and shares of software companies are holding onto their year’s gains. Which means SaaS and cloud companies have made it through a somewhat steep gauntlet largely unscathed.

There were exceptions, of course, but when we consider public software and cloud companies, the tale of the tape is somewhat clear. And it appears to indicate that today’s huge revenue multiples will stick around for a while yet.

 


The Exchange explores startups, markets and money. You can read it every morning on Extra Crunch, or get The Exchange newsletter every Saturday.


This is great news for startups, given that delivering software as a managed service (SaaS) has become the most popular business model for upstart tech companies. If the set of public SaaS companies are richly valued, it reflects well on their private peers. Warm public markets can help with exit valuations and provide encouragement to private investors to keep investing in SaaS startups.

The most recent earnings reports tell a somewhat simple story: Generally strong growth, and generally good forecasts. A few weeks back, Appian beat on revenue growth and profitability and guided a bit above market expectations. Given the nearly 50% run company’s stock that it has enjoyed in 2020, the results were welcome.



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Femtech poised for growth beyond fertility

The market for female-focused health products (aka ‘femtech’) is set for growth via segmentation, per an analyst note from PitchBook which identifies opportunities for entrepreneurs to target a growing number of health issues that specifically affect women or affect women in a specific way — broadening out from a traditional focus on reproductive health.

Femtech remains a “significantly underdeveloped” slice of healthtech, according to the analysis, which highlights the disparity between how much women spend annually on medical expenses — estimated at ~$500BN — vs how little healthcare R&D is targeted specifically at women’s health issues (a mere 4%).

Last year the global market for female-focused health products generated $820.6M, per the note, and is estimated to reach at least $3BN by the end of 2030. While it says femtech posted $592.1M in VC investment in 2019, slightly down on 2018’s $620.3M. But so far this year it’s racked up $376.2M in VC across 57 deals — putting it on pace to match 2019’s funding levels.

Areas of growth opportunity PitchBook sees for femtech outside its traditional focus on reproductive health are: Endometriosis, a painful disorder of the womb lining affecting one in 10 women; what it calls “personalized and female-oriented approaches to general health & disease management”, with a specific focus on heart health, pain management, and diabetes and weight management within that; and the life-stage transition of the menopause.

“While we still view femtech as a niche industry, we believe secular drivers could help propel new growth opportunities in the space,” write analysts Kaia Colban and Andrew Akers. “These include the increasing representation of women in the venture-backed technology community, rising awareness and acceptance of women’s health issues, and the growing prevalence of infectious diseases among women in some countries in Africa and Asia.

“Furthermore, while the majority of femtech products have traditionally focused on reproductive health, we believe new approaches to women’s health research will help open the door to new products and services.”

Expansion of the vertical is being driven by universal growth of the personalized medicine industry — which PitchBook notes is expected to reach $3.2TR by 2025, registering a CAGR of 10.6% over the forecast period.

While the massive underrepresentation of women in the venture community goes a long way to explaining the relative lack of attention investors have paid to products addressing women’s health — with the note acknowledging pitching to male investors remains a challenge for femtech startups — it suggests investors have also been cool on the subcategory because of a relatively poor track record of “sizable” exits.

“Only six femtech exits were completed in 2019; however, this still represents a 64% increase in exit value compared to 2018,” it writes. “The largest exits in recent years include Progyny’s $130M IPO and Procter & Gamble’s acquisition of This is L. for $100M. Progyny’s stock has roughly doubled in the eight months since it went public.”

PitchBook says it expects just 14% of VC to go toward female-founded startups this year — further noting that only 17% of startups have at least one female founder. (For femtech startups the figure is considerably higher — yet still only 69% of those PitchBook tracks; NB, this does not include startups building products targeted at women where there isn’t a medical need, such as skincare & beauty etc.)

“However, we believe these barriers may be subsiding as male investors begin to recognize the femtech market opportunity and as the VC world becomes more gender-diverse,” it adds, noting that female-founded companies deliver over twice as much per dollar invested than their male-owned counterparts which it reckons could help to turn more investors’ heads.

Other key industry growth drivers the note points to are a conducive regulatory environment; a rise in preventative medicine & holistic health; and advancements in health technology that have made personalized products more accessible and affordable, such as AI and “cloud-based infomatics”.

On the M&A front, PitchBook notes this is most common for femtech startups in the general health & wellness category. And while most remain single-product companies it says it expects a maturing femtech industry to lead to product diversification — “potentially driven by M&A” — noting recent examples of pregnancy-focused apps tapping into the menopause market, which it says suggests an expanding opportunity for fertility startups.



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Undermyfork scores $400K seed for its diabetes tracking app and US launch

Undermyfork, a diabetes tracking app designed to help people with the disease improve “time-in-range” and better manage their condition, has raised $400,000 in seed funding.

Investment comes from AltaIR Capital and Runa Capital. Undermyfork co-founder Mike Ushakov’s previous company, Metabar (the maker of the browser add-on Sovetnik), was also backed by Runa, before being acquired by Yandex several years ago.

The Undermyfork app combines meal photos with glucose data coming from a continuous glucose monitor (CGM) device. The aim is to let users correlate meals with changes in blood glucose levels. Specifically, it focuses on “time-in-range” — the percentage of time that a person spends with their blood glucose levels in a target range, considered the most important metric in modern diabetes management.

“With our app, we want to help people with diabetes correct their lifestyle and eating habits, and improve their time-in-range,” Ushakov tells me. “Undermyfork is a very simple tool now: it combines meal photos and insulin data with glucose data, and allows the users to clearly see which meals are driving them out of the safe blood glucose range.

“We help people with diabetes not just to see their blood glucose data, but to interpret the data and make useful conclusions that could improve their life. You can say it’s like ‘Google analytics for blood sugar.’ ”

More broadly, Undermyfork is betting that continuous glucose monitoring devices will replace traditional finger-pricking blood glucose meters in the coming years. The strategy is to establish itself as the default companion app for CGMs, but to do so it will need to gain access to CGM-generated data.

“Undermyfork relies on CGM data, so we need to have the partners to provide us with this data,” explains Ushakov. “This month, simultaneously with closing our round, we partnered with Dexcom, which is the leading CGM manufacturer in the U.S. We now have access to Dexcom’s retrospective API, letting users stream data directly from their Dexcom cloud to the Undermyfork app.”

This also sets up Undermyfork for a U.S. launch. Noteworthy, the mostly Europe-based team is entirely remote. Ushakov is in Amsterdam, co-founder Eugene Molodkin is in St.Petersburg and other team members are in Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Slovenia and Israel.



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